Gold Trading News and Technical Analysis

Gold prices have been dropping because of rising real yields in the US. Real yield is basically interest you earn on your money minus inflation. So, with higher real yields, investors are finding other investments, like bonds, more attractive than holding onto gold. This is because they can now earn a positive return on their money (after accounting for inflation) with these other options. Gold, on the other hand, doesn't offer any interest.

Gold Technical Analysis (Daily)

Gold recently hit a record high, but then its price dropped as real interest rates went up.

We can see from the chart that the price went down (sold off) after the record high. This drop likely happened because of rising real interest rates.

Buyers might be interested in buying again if the price falls to around $2,277. This level is considered a support level, meaning the price might bounce back from there. It also coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%, which some traders use as a potential buying opportunity.

Sellers would likely want to see the price drop even lower, ideally breaking below $2,150. This level represents a major trendline, and a break below it could signal a stronger downtrend for gold.

Gold Technical Analysis (1 hour)

Short-Term chart shows a short-term rising trend for gold. This means the price has been generally going up over the past hour.

Sellers are looking for opportunities to bet on the price going down. They might try to push the price down near $2,371. This is because there's resistance around $2,371, which means it might be difficult for the price to rise above this level. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is also around $2,371. Some traders use Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential buying or selling opportunities. A break below the trendline (the short-term rising trend) could signal a stronger downtrend and encourage more sellers to join in.

Buyers are looking for opportunities to bet on the price going up. They would like to see the price rise above $2,371. This would break above the resistance level, potentially signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Invalidate the bearish setup (the idea that the price is likely to go down).

Upcoming economic data releases in the United States that could potentially impact the price of gold. Here's a breakdown of the thought process:

• US Jobless Claims: This report shows the number of new claims for unemployment benefits each week.
• US PCE Price Index (PCE): This report measures inflation by tracking changes in the prices that consumers pay for goods and services.
  
  

These reports can influence investor sentiment towards the US economy and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Here's how,

• A strong report showing low unemployment claims could indicate a robust economy. This might lead the Fed to raise interest rates to control inflation. Higher interest rates generally make gold less attractive as an investment. So, a strong jobless claims report could potentially put downward pressure on gold prices.
• A high PCE report showing rising inflation could signal that the Fed needs to take action to control it. This could again lead to higher interest rates, potentially causing gold prices to fall.
  
  

However, the impact can be complex sometimes, strong economic data can also be seen as a sign that the Fed won't need to raise rates as aggressively, which could be positive for gold. Unexpected data (either lower jobless claims or lower inflation than expected) could surprise the market and cause price movements in either direction.